Macroeconomics

The effects of the recent global economic crises on Nigeria’s economy have reaffirmed the urgent need for economic diversification in the country. Although no country is immune to such global crises, the over reliance on oil export revenue by Nigeria expose her economy excessively to external shocks. Therefore, this research examines the impact of aggregate non-oil sector and its determinant on economic growth. The bound test approach was explored to examine the long and short run effects of the non-oil export and its ensuing determinants. The result reveals a significant effect of non-oil export on economic growth in both the long and short run. Policies aimed at boosting the level and significance of the non-oil export were proposed.

The intention of this research article is to examine the modern characteristics of demand in the market under the tag modern demand prism. Intention to purchase (need, want & desire) creates demand in the market. The macro demand representation through various platforms provokes the purchase intention. Thus, it is always the demand the parent variable and the purchase intention the child variable. In this research demand model is established, purchase intention model is also established and the relationship between both is also tested. A survey was employed to collect data from Gen Z (N=590) and Gen X (N=550). Factor analysis was used to reduce the vast dimensions and to find the most suitable factors which leads to purchase intention. After performing the factor analysis, a CFA has been performed with help of the software Smart PLS and a model has been built for centennials and millennials. The basic criteria for reliability has been met introspecting values for outer loadings numbers, reliability numbers, AVE numbers, latent variable correlations and discriminant validity. The bootstrap analysis has also been run and the path coefficients have been determined considering the T-Statistics of 1.96 threshold value. It was found that, Gen Y though like to look for variety of products available in online shopping; they just review the products, collect information but do not get involved in the final purchase. With regard to Gen Z, they spend most of the time in social media and in surfing the internet where the exposure towards online shopping is more. The marketers can try to build the trust factor, which plays an important role especially when it comes to online marketing. Thus it is understood that modern demand variables mentioned in the (Modern Demand Prism) is proved to be true. Technology, Online-shopping, ethnocentric feeling, digital tools and AI has enhanced the purchase. These are various opportunities through which the purchase intention is satisfied. The philosophy “Demand is the mother concept for purchase intention” is remembered throughout this research article.

In a rational expectation utility optimization model, the consumption profile is smoothed over time and, under some simplifying assumptions, it equals a constant fraction of total lifetime income. For this result to hold, the consumer must be able to transfer income from one period to another. Otherwise, the consumer is under liquidity constraints. The liquidity constraint affects the allocation of durable and non-durable consumption. We focus on the relationship between the marginal utility of household durable good stock and the marginal utility of non-durable consumption. When capital markets are perfect, the marginal utility of these two variables always bears an equilibrium relationship. But if liquidity constraints are binding, the difference between the lagged value of these two variables can predict the current growth change in non-durable consumption. We estimate the long-run relationship between these two variables using an error correction model and a pseudo-panel data se...

The objective of this undergraduate thesis is to study in historical perspective, through a theoretical analysis, how the neoclassical synthesis was formed by investigating the hypothesis that there would have been a macroeconomic consensus. Macroeconomics has always been characterized as a field in intense ideological dispute, however it is possible that a consensus was brought about in the 1950s-1960s in respect to some core propositions characteristics of a research program that emerged after the Keynesian Revolution, but conserved influences of the classical microeconomic framework. This study also conducted a survey, using articles of the time, on the definition of neoclassical synthesis, aiming to determine whether it was given only a posteriori, which would allow to state that the leading economists of the period of the so-called "neoclassical synthesis" shared a theoretical core, nevertheless they did not invariably worked with the same issues and with the same goals.

This study examined the effect of commercial banks' credit on agricultural output in Nigeria. Four research hypotheses were formulated to guide and direct the study. The ex-post facto research design was adopted for the study. Data for the study were collected from published articles and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin. To estimate the specified equation, the ordinary least squares regression technique was employed. Based on the results obtained, the following result arose; the estimated results showed that there was a positive and significant relationship between agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund and agricultural production in Nigeria. This means that an increase in agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund could lead to an increase in agricultural production in Nigeria; there was a positive and significant relationship between commercial banks credit to the agricultural sector and agricultural production in Nigeria. This result signified that an increase in commercial banks credit to agricultural sector led to an increase in agricultural production in Nigeria. Again, there was a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure on agriculture and agricultural production in Nigeria and a negative relationship between interest rate and agricultural output also confirmed theoretical postulations. This is because an increase in the rate of interest charged farmers for funds borrowed discouraged many farmers from borrowing and thus less agricultural investment. The study recommended that the positive effect of agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund on agricultural production called for the proper funding of the scheme by the government. To this end, there was the need for the government to continue to guarantee loans lent to farmers as this would encourage the banks to lend more to farmers.

With its clear and engaging writing style, PRINCIPLES OF MICROECONOMICS, Seventh Edition, continues to be one of the most popular books on economics available today. Mankiw emphasizes material that you are likely to find interesting about the economy (particularly if you are studying economics for the first time), including real-life scenarios, useful facts, and the many ways economic concepts play a role in the decisions you make every day.

Some of Law and Economics’ basic claims have come to be criticized as a result of empirical findings that question their viability. Particularly, the premise that agents consistently act rationally and with their self-interest in mind seems problematic. What the consequences of the criticism mean for Law and Economics’ tenability depends largely on the questions whether (1) some elements are unassailable to the alternative’s objections and (2) the alternative is a systematic whole. It is argued that Law and Economics may be salvaged, if it is minimized and its ambitions are tempered. This means focusing on the stable, a priori, elements inherent to it.

Monetary policy can affect economy through out various transmission mechanisms. One of these transmission mechanisms is expectations channel. The monetary policy can get involved in expectation channel of transmission mechanism by affecting the process of expectations formation. Because of the results of policies to be implemented variously according to the expectations, the main challenge in monetary policy is to correctly manage expectations. Because of the fact that only the systematic component of monetary policy (estimated component) can affect forward looking expectations, systematic behaviour of the central bank has a critical role in determining the economic consequences of monetary policy. In this study, the effectiveness of expectation channel of transmission mechanism was analyzed by VAR model. According to the results, TCMB cannot affect inflation expectations via both the inflation targets and the policy interest. On the other hand, inflation expectations are affected significantly by actualized inflation rates and exchange rates.

In this study we endeavored to model Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate as a function of general government net lending and borrowing, current account balance, inflation rate, and unemployment rate for four developed countries in the world-United Kingdom, United States, Canada, and France. We have controlled the purchasing power parity GDP in international dollar in our model specification. Our attention in this paper is to show the causal effect of general government net lending and borrowing and current account balance on GDP growth rate for the four countries for a 40-year period, 1980-2020. In this panel data analysis, we find that general government net lending and borrowing is having a positive effect when government lends more to the other sector of the economy and nonresidents and borrow less from the same. We also find that the current account balance has a nonsignificant negative effect on GDP growth rate in fixed effect model. Although, this effect sign and magnitude is almost identical to fixed effect model, however, it is significant in the random effect model.

The economic performance of countries can be compared with various methods and the results obtained from these comparisons are accepted as the economic levels of the countries covering certain periods. Since the ranking or comparison of countries according to their economic performances can be made according to many criteria, mathematical methods are needed in which all criteria are taken into consideration in such performance measurements. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have the ability to alternate sorting, to choose and classify alternatives with the results frequently used and obtained in such comparisons. They are widely used in economic comparisons, in decision problems where many alternatives and criteria are evaluated. Promethee method, which is one of the newest MCDM methods developed to select the best alternative within the framework of determined criteria, is one of the most effective and easiest methods for solving such problems. In the study, 10 EU countries, Turkey and the intended method of measuring the economic performance of Promethee 2018, five key economic criteria were used in this measurement. Determining the performance level of the countries covered in the study, Turkey's uncovering of inadequacy or superiority of some in comparison with EU countries is very important in the sense. According to the Promethee I partial ranking results obtained from the study; Luxembourg has a more dominant and partial priority than other countries. According to the Slovakia-Ireland Likewise, it is more prevalent than Turkey and the Nether-lands. According to the ranking of the provinces that showed clear superiority in the full rankings of Promethee II; While the weight of Luxembourg is positive, the weight of Slovakia is negative. Luxembourg ranks first among the countries covered by the analysis, having the highest net Phi value. These countries respectively, and Latvia are to follow. The Quality value, which represents the quality of the Promethee GAIA measurement, was calculated as 86% for this study.

This study investigates the relationship between exports, foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth in five Eurozone countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy) using panel data for the period 1970 to 2011. The panel data causality results revealed that there is bidirectional causality between exports and economic development, while there is no causality between economic growth and FDI nor between FDI and exports.

The Eurocrisis displays an astonishing similarity to the causes of the Great Depression in the form of massive current account imbalances, destabilising capital flows, financial fragility, and the commitment to defending a fixed exchange rate arrangement by means of austerity and internal devaluation. From the interwar economic and political disaster Europe eventually drew the lesson that internal balance had to enjoy priority over external balance, giving rise to a three-decade long period of unprecedented economic growth after the Second World War. As Europe has again stumbled into many of the policy errors that caused the Great Depression, it will need to relearn some of these lessons. In particular, the paper suggests that Europeanisation has gone too far and that rather than completing the monetary Union, Europe's prosperity and political stability would be better served by compartmentalisation of financial markets, vertical industrial policies and an escape clause in the common currency allowing for temporary exit in case of fundamental disequilibria.

The main purpose of this research paper is to explore and understand the nature of association and the possible existence of a short run and long run relationship between US Dollar, EURO, British Pound and Japanese Yen. To find out the relationship among currencies USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR pairs are considered. The main idea is to know how these selected indicators are related to each other. The daily basis 2781 observations for all four variables from year 2007 to 2018 are taken into consideration. Data are collected from website of Reserve Bank of India. The stationarity of time series is checked and differentiated as per requirement. Johansen co-integration test to know the long run relationship between variables is used. The result shows that there is no co-integration equation among the variables. The short run relationship is examined with help of Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model and the short run relationship within different lags of variables has been identifi...

Does U.S. military aid make the United States safer? To answer this question, we collect data on 173 countries between 1968 and 2014. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the global patterns of U.S. military aid, our paper is the first to provide causal estimates of the effect of U.S. military aid on anti-American terrorism. We find that higher levels of military aid led to an increased likelihood of the recipient country to produce anti-American terrorism. For our preferred instrumental-variable specification, doubling U.S. military aid increases the risk of anti-American terrorism by 4.4 percentage points. Examining potential transmission channels, we find that more U.S. military aid leads to more corruption and exclusionary policies in recipient countries. Consistent with a theoretical argument developed in this paper, these results indicate that the inflow of military aid induces rent-seeking behavior, which in turn encourages terrorism by groups that suffer from reduced economic and political participation as a consequence of rent-seeking. These groups direct their dissatisfaction against the United States as the perceived linchpin of an unfavorable status quo in the recipient country.

Based on the failure to cut down poverty rate to 7% by 2019, I argue that the Indonesian Government needs not only planning and identifying targets, but also look for ways to realise its objectives. The State Budget spent through social spending only have a minuscule impact on poverty reduction, which I strongly suspect to eventuate because the poor lacks the capability to decide on which aspects they should utilise the funds.

I then explained two underlying aspects of blockchain technology: smart contracts and digital identity, and how these two could help the Government achieve its development objectives.

The Government must be both a planner and a searcher. Identify what needs to be resolved and search for ways to resolve it.

This study examined the causal and quantitative relationships between the unemployment rate and the the inflation rate in Bulgaria. А statistical analysis has been performed in order to characterize the relationship between the two economic variables by using monthly and annual data. A comparison has been made with respect to the results obtained for Bulgaria and European Union (28 country). An assessment of the equilibrium level of unemployment (NAIRU) in Bulgaria and in EU-28 has been performed.

The development of financial systems is shaped by the high level of the global economy situation changeability indirectly influenced by interventionist economic policies as well as financial crisis and state of finances of a given country. The attempts undertaken by particular governments to activate economic growth indirectly contributed to the growth of investment and credit risk as well as to creating speculation bubbles in the capital markets stocks. The latest global financial crisis from 2008 was an effect of increasing discrepancy, mismatch between that fast growth of financial instruments including credit financial instruments and the matter of improvement of credit risk management process connected with concluding transactions based on those instruments. In this dissertation, there is a growth of the significance of the credit risk management improvement presented in the context of appearing temporarily financial crisis and thus undertaken interventionist anti-cyclic economic policy.

In order to restore the global economy to solid and sustainable growth, capitalism needs to be reformed from an irrational profit-maximising model into a more rational profit-equalising one. In the aggregate the growth rate of gross operating surplus plus gross mixed income must equal that of gross domestic product and not exceed it, thereby ensuring that the compensation of employees increases proportionally as well. This would prevent the deflationary effect of having continually to refinance debt as it increases disproportionally relative to GDP over successive economic cycles, the root cause of which is not treating the compensation of employees as both a cost and an income in the pursuit of maximising profitability. In SNA national income accounting methodology, income derived GDP is equal to gross operating surplus plus gross mixed income plus compensation of employees plus taxes on production and imports less subsidies. Thus, as profit and mixed income increase relative to GDP, employee compensation must necessarily decrease proportionally with allowances for taxes and subsidies. As wages and salaries are both a cost and an income, which is a self-evident truth, if they are suppressed as a cost on the supply side of an economy in order to maximise profit, this reduction affects aggregate demand by a proportional amount on the demand side by weakening the multiplier. This distorts supply and demand, leading to serious economic imbalances over time. Prices or rather their relative components of wages and profit determine the equilibrium of supply and demand in the aggregate rather than the other way around as the fundamental tenet of neo-classical economics proposes.

The equation below provides evidence that the first principle of wages being a cost and an income is key to balancing supply and demand, and income and expenditure over the economic cycle as well as economics becoming a fully-fledged science. Using United States’ national accounts time series data between 1972 and 2007 to empirically demonstrate a causal connection between the real and financial economies, the increasing dysfunction of the business cycle can be explained. Evidence from other national economies is examined as well. Despite wages being both a cost and a source of demand being obvious and fundamental to Keynes’ demand side theory in his General Theory, it has never been properly acknowledged or its effects fully understood. This reluctance to examine profit is an example of the dialectical opposition between convention based on excessive self-interest in the face of a seemingly uncertain and threatening environment and reason based on the underlying scientific laws of nature. Convention is always stronger than reason in the short to medium term and is only forced to become more rational in the longer term once it has finally collapsed under the weight of its contradiction with reality. The convention of profit-maximising capitalism could soon be at this point if the wall of corporate refinancing it faces in the next few years proves to be insurmountable.

Many countries allocate a significant amount of their income to defence related expenses, especially when involved in internal or external military conflicts. Political stability in a country is a key ingredient for attracting foreign and local investors and hence for economic growth. This paper analyses the relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth in Sri Lanka using data for the period 1975–2013 applying the latest developments in time series analysis. Interestingly, the results show that, in Sri Lanka, defence expenditure causes economic growth. There is no causal effect from economic growth to defence expenditure as generally expected. This result is unique as Sri Lanka went through 30 years of civil war which ended in 2009, which resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of civilian lives and cost several billions of dollars in annual defence expenditure throughout the war years.

В статье исследуется соотношение совокупного спроса и предложения в эконо-мике Азербайджана, а также динамика их изменения за последние 15 лет. Авторы при-ходят к такому заключению, что из-за сильного превышения совокупного спроса над предложением, цены товаров и услуг непрерывно увеличиваются, и стимулируется им-порт. А увеличение объема импортируемых товаров и уменьшение «чистого экспорта» отрицательно влияют на курс национальной валюты, и провоцирует девалвацию. Мак-роэкономические проблемы, связанные с диспропорции совокупного спроса и предложе-ния, могут нанести серьезный удар по экономике Азербайджана в контексте уменьше-ния нефтяных доходов. Ключевые слова: совокупный спрос, совокупное предложение, инвестиции, экс-порт, импорт, потребительские расходы, ВВП

A strong policy response - on the back of fiscal buffers, a strong financial system, and favorable external conditions - enabled Turkey to recover from its shock of 2016, with growth accelerating to 7.4 percent in 2017. The outcome of supply constraints and demand impulse are reflected in high inflation; a large current account deficit; and currency volatility. The developments are weighing on private sector confidence despite the ongoing boost to sales, employment, and profits. Enabling an orderly adjustment is important for productivity and potential output. Turkey has been prone to large economic swings in the past. The greater the volatility in growth, the more pronounced is the negative impact on productive investment and efficiency of resource allocation. The possibility for monetary policy to respond to adverse external developments is more challenging. A combination of high inflation (due to demand pressures, exchange rate passthrough, and higher production costs) on the one hand, and rising (and positive) policy rates on the other, creates challenges for a monetary stimulus in the event of an external shock. This challenge is exacerbated by the need to cool credit expansion, which has been above its long-term trend.

Policymakers face a significant challenge in understanding the factors that drive the cost of debt. For investors, the risk premium on these bonds play a crucial role, as it reflects the underlying risks of a country, working as a credibility index in some form. For emerging markets, this serves as an important metric for public debt management. (Mendonca & Nunes, 2011). The focus of this paper is to help shed light on this issue by examining the extent to which public debt-GDP ratios effect the cost of government debt.

Our paper aims to introduce a new model that will be able to explain jointly migration flows linked to brain drain, brain gain and brain return. Our simple indicator (LISE) measures level of individual well-being linked to each country and it was perfectly comparable. With our indicator it is possible to understand what are the drivers of migration flows, there is the possibility to prevent phenomena related to brain drain or to incentivate phenomena related to brain gain or brain return simply connecting the relative differences between the indicators calculated in various countries of the world. We have empirically tested the validity of our indicator on a sample of 12 countries. We have opened new avenues for research because using our indicator it is possible to make forecasts or to understand how and when a skilled migration flow can occur. We are able to prevent damages of Brain Drain and cross border skill mismatching using our simple indicator. ___________________________________________________________________________

La publicidad de productos alimentarios arroja grandes luces sobre el comportamiento de la economía colombiana durante las décadas de 1980, 1990 y 2000; en el texto, evidenciamos la fluctuación de anuncios según las influencias de las pol��ticas y económicas del país, la visión de mundo y el cambio de las tendencias gráficas empleadas para la persuasión del consumidor. De esta manera, veremos cómo la publicidad impresa se podría convertir en un buen reflejo para leer las transiciones políticas y económicas de un país.

Palabras clave: publicidad alimentaria, texto publicitario, macroeconomía, Colombia.