×

Distribution free goodness-of-fit tests for linear processes. (English) Zbl 1084.62038

Summary: This article proposes a class of goodness-of-fit tests for the autocorrelation function of a time series process, including those exhibiting long-range dependence. Test statistics for composite hypotheses are functionals of a (approximated) martingale transformation of the Bartlett \(T_p\)-process with estimated parameters, which converge in distribution to the standard Brownian motion under the null hypothesis. We discuss tests of different natures such as omnibus, directional and Portmanteau-type tests. A Monte Carlo study illustrates the performance of the different tests in practice.

MSC:

62G10 Nonparametric hypothesis testing
62M10 Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH)
65C05 Monte Carlo methods
62M15 Inference from stochastic processes and spectral analysis

References:

[1] Aki, S. (1986). Some test statistics based on the martingale term of the empirical distribution function. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 38 1–21. · Zbl 0659.62055 · doi:10.1007/BF02482496
[2] Anderson, T. W. (1997). Goodness-of-fit tests for autoregressive processes. J. Time Ser. Anal. 18 321–339. · Zbl 0885.62053 · doi:10.1111/1467-9892.00053
[3] Billingsley, P. (1968). Convergence of Probability Measures . Wiley, New York. · Zbl 0172.21201
[4] Bloomfield, P. (1973). An exponential model for the spectrum of a scalar time series. Biometrika 60 217–226. · Zbl 0261.62074 · doi:10.1093/biomet/60.2.217
[5] Box, G. E. P. and Pierce, D. A. (1970). Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 65 1509–1526. · Zbl 0224.62041 · doi:10.2307/2284333
[6] Brillinger, D. R. (1981). Time Series , Data Analysis and Theory , 2nd ed. Holden-Day, San Francisco. · Zbl 0486.62095
[7] Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. (1991). Time Series : Theory and Methods , 2nd ed. Springer, New York. · Zbl 0709.62080
[8] Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. and Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing constancy of regression relationships over time (with discussion). J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 37 149–192. · Zbl 0321.62063
[9] Chen, H. and Romano J. P. (1999). Bootstrap-assisted goodness-of-fit tests in the frequency domain. J. Time Ser. Anal. 20 619–654. · Zbl 0940.62030 · doi:10.1111/1467-9892.00162
[10] Dahlhaus, R. (1985). On the asymptotic distribution of Bartlett’s \(U_p\)-statistic. J. Time Ser. Anal. 6 213–227. · Zbl 0602.62081 · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1985.tb00411.x
[11] Delgado, M. A. and Hidalgo, J. (2000). Bootstrap goodness-of-fit test for linear processes. Preprint, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. · Zbl 0968.62041 · doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00052-4
[12] Durbin, J., Knott, M. and Taylor, C. C. (1975). Components of Cramér–von Mises statistics. II. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 37 216–237. · Zbl 0335.62032
[13] Eubank, R. L. and LaRiccia, V. N. (1992). Asymptotic comparison of Cramér–von Mises and nonparametric function estimation techniques for testing goodness-of-fit. Ann. Statist. 20 2071–2086. · Zbl 0769.62033 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176348903
[14] Giraitis, L., Hidalgo, J. and Robinson, P. M. (2001). Gaussian estimation of parametric spectral density with unknown pole. Ann. Statist. 29 987–1023. · Zbl 1012.62098 · doi:10.1214/aos/1013699989
[15] Giraitis, L. and Surgailis, D. (1990). A central limit theorem for quadratic forms in strongly dependent linear variables and its application to asymptotic normality of Whittle’s estimate. Probab. Theory Related Fields 86 87–104. · Zbl 0717.62015 · doi:10.1007/BF01207515
[16] Grenander, U. (1950). Stochastic processes and statistical inference. Ark. Mat. 1 195–277. · Zbl 0058.35501 · doi:10.1007/BF02590638
[17] Grenander, U. (1981). Abstract Inference. Wiley, New York. · Zbl 0505.62069
[18] Grenander, U. and Rosenblatt, M. (1957). Statistical Analysis of Stationary Time Series . Wiley, New York. · Zbl 0080.12904
[19] Hainz, G. and Dahlhaus, R. (2000). Spectral domain bootstrap tests for stationary time series.
[20] Hannan, E. J. (1973). The asymptotic theory of linear time-series models. J. Appl. Probability 10 130–145. · Zbl 0261.62073 · doi:10.2307/3212501
[21] Hong, Y. (1996). Consistent testing for serial correlation of unknown form. Econometrica 64 837–864. · Zbl 0960.62559 · doi:10.2307/2171847
[22] Hosking, J. R. M. (1984). Modeling persistence in hydrological time series using fractional differencing. Water Resources Research 20 1898–1908.
[23] Hosoya, Y. (1997). A limit theory for long-range dependence and statistical inference on related models. Ann. Statist. 25 105–137. · Zbl 0873.62096 · doi:10.1214/aos/1034276623
[24] Kac, M. and Siegert, A. J. F. (1947). An explicit representation of a stationary Gaussian process Ann. Math. Statist. 18 438–442. · Zbl 0033.38501 · doi:10.1214/aoms/1177730391
[25] Khmaladze, E. V. (1981). A martingale approach in the theory of goodness-of-fit tests. Theory Probab. Appl. 26 240–257. · Zbl 0481.60055 · doi:10.1137/1126027
[26] Khmaladze, E. V. and Koul, H. (2004). Martingale transforms goodness-of-fit tests in regression models. Ann. Statist. 32 995–1034. · Zbl 1092.62052 · doi:10.1214/009053604000000274
[27] Klüppelberg, C. and Mikosch, T. (1996). The integrated periodogram for stable processes. Ann. Statist. 24 1855–1879. · Zbl 0898.62116 · doi:10.1214/aos/1069362301
[28] Koul, H. and Stute, W. (1998). Regression model fitting with long memory errors. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 71 35–56. · Zbl 0931.62015 · doi:10.1016/S0378-3758(98)00016-0
[29] Koul, H. and Stute, W. (1999). Nonparametric model checks for time series. Ann. Statist. 27 204–236. · Zbl 0955.62089 · doi:10.1214/aos/1018031108
[30] Ljung, G. M. and Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika 65 297–303. · Zbl 0386.62079 · doi:10.1093/biomet/65.2.297
[31] Neyman, J. (1937). “Smooth” test for goodness of fit. Skand. Aktuarietidskr. 20 150–199. · Zbl 0018.03403
[32] Nikabadze, A. and Stute, W. (1997). Model checks under random censorship. Statist. Probab. Lett. 32 249–259. · Zbl 1003.62540 · doi:10.1016/S0167-7152(96)00081-8
[33] Paparoditis, E. (2000). Spectral density based goodness-of-fit tests for time series models. Scand. J. Statist. 27 143–176. · Zbl 0940.62084 · doi:10.1111/1467-9469.00184
[34] Prewitt, K. (1998). Goodness-of-fit test in parametric time series models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 19 549–574. · Zbl 0919.62109 · doi:10.1111/1467-9892.00108
[35] Robinson, P. M. (1994). Time series with strong dependence. In Advances in Econometrics : Sixth World Congress 1 (C. A. Sims, ed.) 47–95. Cambridge Univ. Press.
[36] Robinson, P. M. (1995). Log-periodogram regression of time series with long range dependence. Ann. Statist. 23 1048–1072. · Zbl 0838.62085 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176324636
[37] Robinson, P. M. (1995). Gaussian semiparametric estimation of long-range dependence. Ann. Statist. 23 1630–1661. · Zbl 0843.62092 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176324317
[38] Schoenfeld, D. A. (1977). Asymptotic properties of tests based on linear combinations of the orthogonal components of the Cramér–von Mises statistic. Ann. Statist. 5 1017–1026. · Zbl 0369.62045 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176343956
[39] Sen, P. K. (1982). Invariance principles for recursive residuals. Ann. Statist. 10 307–312. · Zbl 0484.62098 · doi:10.1214/aos/1176345714
[40] Shorack, G. R. and Wellner, J. A. (1986). Empirical Processes with Applications to Statistics . Wiley, New York. · Zbl 1170.62365
[41] Stute, W. (1997). Nonparametric model checks for regression. Ann. Statist. 25 613–641. · Zbl 0926.62035 · doi:10.1214/aos/1031833666
[42] Stute, W., Thies, S. and Zhu, L. (1998). Model checks for regression: An innovation process approach. Ann. Statist. 26 1916–1934. · Zbl 0930.62044 · doi:10.1214/aos/1024691363
[43] Stute, W. and Zhu, L. (2002). Model checks for generalized linear models. Scand. J. Statist. 29 535–545. · Zbl 1035.62073 · doi:10.1111/1467-9469.00304
[44] Velasco, C. (1999). Non-stationary log-periodogram regression J. Econometrics 91 325–371. · Zbl 1041.62533 · doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00080-3
[45] Velasco, C. and Robinson, P. M. (2000). Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for nonstationary time series. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 95 1229–1243. · Zbl 1008.62087 · doi:10.2307/2669763
[46] Velilla, S. (1994). A goodness-of-fit test for autoregressive-moving-average models based on the standardized sample spectral distribution of the residuals J. Time Ser. Anal. 15 637–647. · Zbl 0807.62072 · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00218.x
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.