Likelihood analysis of a first-order autoregressive model with exponential innovations. (English) Zbl 1050.62096
The model under consideration is a first-order linear AR model \(x_t=\rho x_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t\), \(t=1,\dots,T\), where \(\{\varepsilon_t\}\) is a sequence of independent, exponentially distributed random variables with common positive scale parameter \(\lambda>0\). The distribution theory for inference on the autoregressive parameter \(\rho\) is given and the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator \(\widehat{\rho}=\min_{1\leq t \leq T}(x_t/x_{t-1})\) of the autoregressive parameter is derived. Asymptotic properties of \(\widehat{\rho}\) are investigated. Particularly, it is proved that if \(\rho<1\), then the estimator \(\widehat{\rho}\) is asymptotically exponential and \(T\)-consistent; when \(\rho=1\), the asymptotic distribution is again exponential but \(T^2\)-consistent, while in the explosive case the estimator is \(\rho^T\)-consistent. In all cases the likelihood ratio test statistics for the simple hypothesis \(\rho=\rho_0\) are asymptotically uniformly distributed.
Reviewer: N. M. Zinchenko (Kyïv)
MSC:
62M10 | Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) |
62E15 | Exact distribution theory in statistics |
62F12 | Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators |
62F05 | Asymptotic properties of parametric tests |
62E20 | Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics |
Keywords:
autoregression; exact distribution; exponential innovations; hypothesis testing; likelihood; non-regular asymptotic; stochastic volatilityReferences:
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