Models for transmission of disease with immigration of infectives. (English) Zbl 0995.92041
Summary: Simple models for disease transmission that include immigration of infective individuals and variable population size are constructed and analyzed. A model with a general contact rate for a disease that confers no immunity admits a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally stable. A model with mass action incidence for a disease in which infectives either die or recover with permanent immunity has the same qualitative behavior.
This latter result is proved by reducing the system to an integro-differential equation. If mass action incidence is replaced by a general contact rate, then the same result is proved locally for a disease that causes fatalities. Threshold-like results are given, but in the presence of immigration of infectives there is no disease-free equilibrium. A considerable reduction of infectives is suggested by the incorporation of screening and quarantining of infectives in a model for HIV transmission in a prison system.
This latter result is proved by reducing the system to an integro-differential equation. If mass action incidence is replaced by a general contact rate, then the same result is proved locally for a disease that causes fatalities. Threshold-like results are given, but in the presence of immigration of infectives there is no disease-free equilibrium. A considerable reduction of infectives is suggested by the incorporation of screening and quarantining of infectives in a model for HIV transmission in a prison system.
MSC:
| 92D30 | Epidemiology |
| 45J05 | Integro-ordinary differential equations |
| 34D23 | Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations |
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