×

Multi-resource investment strategies: Operational hedging under demand uncertainty. (English) Zbl 0933.91011

Summary: Consider a firm that markets multiple products, each manufactured using several resources representing various types of capital and labor, and a linear production technology. The firm faces uncertain product demand and has the option to dynamically readjust its resource investment levels, thereby changing the capacities of its linear manufacturing process. The cost to adjust a resource level either up or down is assumed to be linear. The model developed here explicitly incorporates both capacity investment decisions and production decisions, and is general enough to include reversible and irreversible investment. The product demand vectors for successive periods are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. The optimal investment strategy is determined with a multi-dimensional newsvendor model using demand distributions, a technology matrix, prices (product contribution margins), and marginal investment costs. Our analysis highlights an important conceptual distinction between deterministic and stochastic environments: the optimal investment strategy in our stochastic model typically involves some degree of capacity imbalance which can never be optimal when demand is known.

MSC:

91B28 Finance etc. (MSC2000)
Full Text: DOI

References:

[1] Manne, A. S., Capacity expansion and probabilistic growth, Econometrica, 29, 4, 632-649 (1961) · Zbl 0103.13203
[2] Luss, H., Operations research and capacity expansion problems: A survey, Operations Research, 30, 907-947 (1982) · Zbl 0491.90039
[3] Davis, M. H.A.; Dempster, M. A.H.; Sethi, S. P.; Vermes, D., Optimal capacity expansion under uncertainty, Advances in Applied Probability, 19, 156-176 (1987) · Zbl 0619.93073
[4] Bean, J. C.; Higle, J. L.; Smith, R. L., Capacity expansion under stochastic demands, Operations Research, 40, Suppl. 2, S210-S216 (1992) · Zbl 0764.90021
[5] Eppen, G. D.; Martin, R. K.; Schrage, L., A scenario approach to capacity planning, Operations Research, 37, 4, 517-527 (1989)
[6] Fine, C. H.; Freund, R. M., Optimal investment in product-flexible manufacturing capacity, Management Science, 36, 4, 449-466 (1990) · Zbl 0699.90044
[7] Li, S.; Tirupati, D., Dynamic capacity expansion problem with multiple products: Technology selection and timing of capacity additions, Operations Research, 42, 5, 958-976 (1994) · Zbl 0816.90073
[8] Dixit, A., Investment and employment dynamics in the short run and the long run, Oxford Economic Papers, 49, 1-20 (1997)
[9] Eberly, J. C.; Van Mieghem, J. A., Multi-factor dynamic investment under uncertainty, Journal of Economic Theory, 75, 2, 345-387 (1997) · Zbl 0892.90020
[10] J.A. Van Mieghem, Investment strategies for flexible resources, Management Science, forthcoming; J.A. Van Mieghem, Investment strategies for flexible resources, Management Science, forthcoming · Zbl 0989.91534
[11] J.A. Van Mieghem, Capacity investment under demand uncertainty: The option value of subcontracting, Technical report 1208, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 1998; J.A. Van Mieghem, Capacity investment under demand uncertainty: The option value of subcontracting, Technical report 1208, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 1998
[12] A.K. Dixit, R.S. Pindyck, Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1994; A.K. Dixit, R.S. Pindyck, Investment Under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1994
[13] Bakke, N. A.; Hellberg, R., The challenges of capacity planning, International Journal of Production Economics, 30, 31, 243-264 (1993)
[14] Veral, E. A.; LaForge, R. L., The integration of cost and capacity considerations in material requirements planning systems, Decision Sciences, 21, 3, 507-520 (1990)
[15] A.P. Cowie, Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary of Current English, 4th ed., Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1989; A.P. Cowie, Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary of Current English, 4th ed., Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1989
[16] Huchzermeier, A.; Cohen, M. A., Valuing operational flexibility under exchange rate risk, Operations Research, 44, 1, 100-113 (1996) · Zbl 0847.90067
[17] Wets, R. J.-B., Programming under uncertainty: The equivalent convex program, J. SIAM Appl. Math., 14, 1, 89-105 (1966) · Zbl 0139.13303
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.