The mortality of the Italian population: smoothing techniques on the Lee-Carter model. (English) Zbl 1223.62171
Summary: Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the R. D. Lee and L. R. Carter model [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 87, 659–671 (1992)] has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of mortality intensity. R. J. Hyndman and M. S. Ullah [Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 51, No. 10, 4942–4956 (2007; Zbl 1162.62434)] have shown a particular version of the Lee-Carter methodology, the so-called Functional Demographic Model, which is one of the most accurate approaches as regards some mortality data, particularly for longer forecast horizons where the benefit of a damped trend forecast is greater. The paper objective is properly to single out the most suitable model between the basic Lee-Carter and the Functional Demographic Model to the Italian mortality data. A comparative assessment is made and the empirical results are presented using a range of graphical analyses.
MSC:
| 62P25 | Applications of statistics to social sciences |
| 91D20 | Mathematical geography and demography |
| 65C60 | Computational problems in statistics (MSC2010) |
| 62P10 | Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis |
Citations:
Zbl 1162.62434Software:
bootstrapReferences:
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