Down to the wire: On the run-up to the U.S. presidential election

A second, apparent attempt on the life of former U.S. President and Republican candidate for the White House, Donald Trump, has again lent an air of drama to the unfolding U.S. election campaign. Unlike the first such attempt, in Pennsylvania in mid-July, and in which a shooter’s bullet hit Mr. Trump’s ear, a man with a rifle at the golf club where Mr. Trump was located was confronted by the Secret Service and taken into custody. While the two attempts may win Mr. Trump some sympathy votes on November 5, it remains to be seen whether these incidents impact the public psyche sufficiently to tip the race in his favour. As it stands, the race between Mr. Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice-President Kamala Harris, is poised on a knife’s edge, with the latest national average of polls putting Ms. Harris ahead by three percentage points — 49%. Yet, analysts argue that the difference is not beyond the margin of statistical error, which would make it unwise to assume a winner based on the current trend.

Leaving aside unexpected or shock events that could dramatically shift the terms of the race between now and voting day, the old election adage and past statistical observation that a greater turnout may benefit Democrats will likely hold true in 2024. Indeed, in the 2022 mid-term elections, the performance of Republicans, who were on a strong wicket after incumbent President Joe Biden’s approval rating had fallen to relatively low levels, was dented by Democratic Party supporters who turned out in greater numbers in the wake of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe vs Wade on the federal right to abortion. Similarly, Democrats may have felt encouraged after the first Trump-Harris presidential debate, wherein Mr. Trump made unfounded allegations about immigrants eating the pets of Americans. Immigration reform has always been a thorny issue that has punctured the campaign of many a previous presidential candidate or the policy plans of elected representatives. Mr. Trump already alienated many voters during his first term and campaign when he implemented his so-called “Muslim ban” — travel to the U.S. from certain Muslim-majority nations — and made derogatory remarks about immigrants from Mexico and parts of Latin America. While it is clear that he intends to continue down this path of racist nativism, it remains to be seen whether Ms. Harris will be able to offer a rational and humane border and asylum policy for undocumented workers, including a reasonable and just path to citizenship for those who are productive members of American society. There is a palpable need for bipartisan politics and policy at this juncture.