The story so far: The path to autonomy for Jammu-Kashmir (J&K) became clearer on August 17, as the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced three-phase elections in the Union Territory— on September 18, September 25 and October 1. Results will be announced on October 4.
Buoyed by the announcement, local parties like the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (NC), the Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP), J&K People’s Conference’s (PC), J&K People’s movement (JKPM), and J&K Apni Party have indicated their participation in the polls. While the Congress has tied up with NC, BJP is set to contest the polls solo.
With 87 lakh electors eligible to cast their votes in the election for 90 Assembly seats across J&K, these elections will be the first to be held since 2014, when BJP and PDP allied to form a shaky coalition. This alliance ended in 2018, resulting in the legislature’s dissolution. While J&K has a 90-seat legislative assembly, Ladakh has none, and both territories are headed by a Lieutenant-Governor.
Here’s a look at parties, alliances and the significance of the UT’s first Assembly polls.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
With a view to foray into India’s only Muslim-majority legislature, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has announced 45 candidates for the 90 seats up for grabs in the Valley. It is not clear whether the BJP will contest for all Assembly seats, but it has not announced any alliances either.
After revoking Article 370, BJP has constantly participated in elections in the Valley for grassroot level wards and panchayats but opted to sit out of the Lok Sabha polls. While BJP has not officially allied with any party, it has backed several ‘independents’ or local parties aligning with the party’s policy on J&K— i.e., accepting revocation of J&K’s special status.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes a selfie with people after performing yoga on the 10th International Day of Yoga, in Srinagar on Friday, June 21, 2024 | Photo Credit: -
During the District Development Council (DDC) polls held in 2020, BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 75 of the 280 seats up for grabs. With the help of fifty independent candidates, BJP managed to bag six councils in Jammu — Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Udhampur, Doda and Raesi — but none in Kashmir.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha, BJP’s main Opposition — the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) — failed to put up a united fight. As NC and PDP fought against each other for J&K’s three Lok Sabha seats — Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri, BJP opted to sit out of the fight and concentrated on Ladakh, Udhampur and Jammu, where it faced Congress. Its gamble paid off as BJP managed to win both Jammu seats, while independent candidate Mohmad Haneefa won Ladakh, leaving Congress empty-handed.
In the upcoming polls, BJP initially fielded 44 candidates which included several Muslim candidates from the Pir Panjal valley. The first list was withdrawn after several party workers protested and alleged that “turncoats” were being preferred over “dedicated workers.” However, BJP just replaced Rohit Dubey with Baldev Raj Sharma for the Vaishno Devi seat. BJP is yet to name a nominee for Nowshera, which was won by its State chief Ravinder Raina in 2014 and then by former Deputy Chief Minister Kavinder Gupta in 2019.
Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA)
NC & Congress
In 2020, when top J&K leaders were finally released from incarceration after a year, Congress’ J&K chief Taj Mohiudin attended the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) meeting at NC veteran Farooq Abdullah’s residence, inking a formal alliance between six political parties — NC, PDP, PC, Congress, CPI (M) and the Awami National Conference (ANC) — to carry forward the fight for J&K’s special status. The Congress initially stated that it was not part of the PAGD but then allied with the PAGD parties for electoral purposes. In the DDC polls, the alliance emerged victorious, scooping 110 of 280 seats.
Also read: National Conference, Congress announce seat-sharing deal for J&K polls
Formalising the electoral alliance, Congress brought NC, PDP and CPI(M) under the INDIA umbrella in July 2023. During that year, both NC and PDP accused the Congress of prioritising State elections in Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Mizoram over creating a united Opposition for 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi meet Omar Abdullah and Farooq Abdullah in Srinagar on August 22, 2024. | Photo Credit: IMRAN NISSAR
As talks for seat-sharing began in J&K, friction began to grow between NC and PDP, as the former insisted on contesting in all three Kashmir constituencies — Anantnag-Rajouri, Srinagar, and Baramulla. PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti sought to contest from her bastion Anantnag-Rajouri, but Mr. Abdullah refused to cede it. With NC scoring a point against its old rival PDP, effectively pushing it out of INDIA, Congress too ceded to Abdullah’s demand.
The compromise worked in NC’s favour as it won two of the three seats in the Valley, fighting against PDP. However, both former CMs — Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti — lost their battle in Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri respectively. PDP failed to win a single seat as it was jailed leader Abdul Rashid Sheikh who beat Mr. Abdullah.
After the mixed results in Lok Sabha polls — two seats won by BJP and NC each and two by Independents – NC and Congress formally agreed to a seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Assembly elections on August 27. As per the split, NC will contest 51 seats, Congress 32 seats; one seat each has been allotted to the CPI(M) and Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party.
NC also released its manifesto, in which it promises to ‘strive to restore Article 370, 35A,’ restore statehood, annul laws passed after 2019 impacting J&K special status, give jobs to all unemployed residents, release political prisoners, encourage dialogue between India and Pakistan, restrict land ownership to actual residents, and repeal the Public Safety Act (PSA). The first list of 32 candidates includes Mr. Omar Abdullah, who has thrown his hat in the ring from Ganderbal – a U-turn from his earlier position that he won’t contest polls till statehood is restored.
For its part, the Congress has issued its first list of nine candidates, fielding party general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir from Dooru and former State unit chief Vikar Rasool Wani from Banihal. With the exit of the party’s most prominent face in J&K — Ghulam Nabi Azad — the grand old party has relied on ex-chief Rahul Gandhi to galvanize its cadres. In his latest visit to Srinagar, Mr. Gandhi reiterated the need for J&K’s statehood saying, “This status of running Kashmir, running Jammu from Delhi does not make any sense.”
PDP
In spite of exiting from INDIA, Mehbooba Mufti has clarified that she would stand by them if they accept PDP’s agenda. In her party’s manifesto, Ms. Mufti has made similar promises to those of the NC – restoring statehood, advocating for dialogue between India-Pakistan, full connectivity across the Line of Control (LoC) for trade and social exchange, revoking PSA, and revisiting ‘unjust’ job terminations. It also promised to revoke other Central laws such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and Enemy Act.
Despite its backing of the INDIA coalition, PDP has released a list of 21 candidates, several of them facing NC candidates. While Ms. Mufti has ruled out running for re-election from Ananatnag, her daughter Iltija has filed her nomination from Bijbehara constituency, making her poll debut. PDP has also ruled out any alliance with BJP and termed the Congress-NC alliance a ‘power-hungry’ one.
PC, DPAP, and Apni Party
Apart from these main players, there are three other noteworthy parties in the poll fray – Sajjad Lone’s J&K People’s conference (PC), ex-Congress veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and Altaf Bukhari’s J&K Apni Party.
Mr. Lone, who quit the PAGD in 2021 due to the NC-PDP rivalry, claimed his party had been sidelined in seat-sharing talks for the DDC polls. In the Lok Sabha polls this year, Mr. Lone challenged Mr. Abdullah for the Baramulla seat and cut NC’s voteshare by 1.73 lakh votes, which eventually lead to Mr. Rashid’s victory. His party has, till now, announced seven candidates for the upcoming Assembly polls.
Sajjad Lone | Photo Credit: Getty Images
Similarly, Mr. Azad, who left the Congress party in 2022 disgruntled with the lack of revival efforts, set up his own party DPAP to foray into J&K politics. Accepting the reality of a Kashmir without special status, he campaigned for the Lok Sabha polls on three issues — statehood, development and the poor politics of Abdullah and Mufti. His party failed to win a single seat and amassed only 80,264 votes in the three seats it fought. Despite this drubbing, DPAP is participating in the upcoming Assembly polls, announcing 13 candidates.
Altaf Bukhari, one of the few J&K politicians not to be incarcerated in 2019, split away from PDP along with 30 other leaders to form the J&K Apni Party. The party’s main demands were statehood, restoration of domicile rights of J&K and extension of Article 371 of the constitution to J&K. The party did reasonably well in DDC polls, winning 12 seats. Now it has fielded 24 candidates, with Mr. Bukhari himself in the poll fray for the Chanapora seat.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi gets emotional during his farewell speech for Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad in the Rajya Sabha during the Budget Session of Parliament, in New Delhi, on February 9, 2021 | Photo Credit: RSTV/PTI Photo
All three of the above parties have been accused of being ‘BJP proxies’ by the INDIA parties, but have denied it. Top BJP leaders including Mr. Amit Shah and Mr. Narendra Modi have never attacked the chiefs of any of these parties in their rallies, often urging people to not vote for NC, PDP or Congress. While Mr. Bukhari was one of the first ones to meet Mr. Modi and Mr. Shah post the abrogation of Article 370, Mr. Lone was part of the BJP-PDP government in 2014. On the other hand, Mr. Azad – a lifelong Congressman – received a very emotional farewell in 2021 from Mr. Modi during his retirement from Rajya Sabha. He also lavished praise on the Prime Minister as a ‘statesman,’ post his exit from Congress.
Others
Smaller parties like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), remnants of the J&K People’s movement (JKPM), and banned outfit Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have also fielded candidates, apart from several Independents in the poll fray this September.
Significance of J&K Assembly polls
These Assembly polls are the first ones to be held since the State’s bifurcation into two Union Territories and revocation of its special status. Prior to holding Assembly polls, the ECI conducted a delimitation exercise in 2022, where 43 seats were identified in the Jammu region while 47 in Kashmir valley. Moreover, nine Assembly seats — three in Kashmir, six in Jammu —were reserved for scheduled tribes.
In 2023, the Parliament passed a slew of bills which made several changes to J&K’s reservation policy. One-third of the elected seats have been reserved for women. The Valmiki community has been included in the Scheduled Caste list in J&K while the Paharis have been included in the Scheduled Tribes list.
The Paharis, with sizeable populations in Budhal, Gulabgarh, Surankote, Rajouri, Mendhar, and Thanamandi — all seats reserved for STs — can now contest the polls. Similarly, members of the Valmiki community, who mainly live around Jammu in colonies, can avail of reservation in jobs and educational institutions. Both communities have been wooed by the BJP, which is seeking to expand its vote-base in the Valley.
One of the biggest changes these polls will usher in is the semblance of autonomy, governance and representation for Kashmiri citizens. Since August 5, 2019, the Valley has been governed from Delhi by the Centre. Now its own politicians will be empowered to make policy decisions — albeit under the stringent rule of the Delhi-appointed L-G.
