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{{Current|date=April 2010}}
{{Current|date=April 2010}}
{{Infobox Election
{{Infobox Election
| election_name = Hungarian parliamentary election, 2010
| election_name = Hungarian parliamentary election, 2010
Line 11: Line 11:
| seats_for_election = All 386 seats to the [[National Assembly of Hungary|Országgyűlés]]
| seats_for_election = All 386 seats to the [[National Assembly of Hungary|Országgyűlés]]
| election_date = 11 and 25 April 2010
| election_date = 11 and 25 April 2010
| image1 =
| image1 =
| leader1 = [[Viktor Orbán]]
| leader1 = [[Viktor Orbán]]
| party1 = Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union
| party1 = Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union
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==Polls==
==Polls==
As polls showed both MDF and SZDSZ would be unlikely to make it into parliament on their own, they have agreed to a limited electoral cooperation.<ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100129/mdf-szdsz-plan-election-cooperation-in-budapest |title=MDF, SZDSZ plan election cooperation in Budapest |publisher=Politics.Hu |date= |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref> In March 2010, polls also showed that the Hungarian parliament after the election was likely to be completely dominated by [[Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union|Fidesz]] polling at 53–67% that month, followed by either the ruling [[Hungarian Socialist Party]] at 12–22% or newcomer [[Movement for a Better Hungary|Jobbik]] at 11–18%.<ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100225/fidesz-still-forecast-to-win-twothirds-majority-at-elections |title=Fidesz still forecast to win two-thirds majority at elections |publisher=Politics.Hu |date=2010-02-25 |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100225/new-poll-reveals-fidesz-leading-firmly-voter-activity-rising |title=New poll reveals Fidesz leading firmly, voter activity rising |publisher=Politics.Hu |date=2010-02-25 |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref>
As polls showed both MDF and SZDSZ would be unlikely to make it into parliament on their own, they have agreed to a limited electoral cooperation.<ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100129/mdf-szdsz-plan-election-cooperation-in-budapest |title=MDF, SZDSZ plan election cooperation in Budapest |publisher=Politics.Hu |date= |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref> In March 2010, polls also showed that the Hungarian parliament after the election was likely to be completely dominated by [[Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union|Fidesz]] polling at 53–67% that month, followed by either the ruling [[Hungarian Socialist Party]] at 12–22% or newcomer [[Movement for a Better Hungary|Jobbik]] at 11–18%.<ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100225/fidesz-still-forecast-to-win-twothirds-majority-at-elections |title=Fidesz still forecast to win two-thirds majority at elections |publisher=Politics.Hu |date=2010-02-25 |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=By MTI |url=http://www.politics.hu/20100225/new-poll-reveals-fidesz-leading-firmly-voter-activity-rising |title=New poll reveals Fidesz leading firmly, voter activity rising |publisher=Politics.Hu |date=2010-02-25 |accessdate=2010-04-12}}</ref>

==The election==
{{expand|section}}


{|class="wikitable"
{|class="wikitable"
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|}
|}



==The election==
===First round===
===First round===
====Statistical data====
====Statistical data====
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====Results====
====Results====
{{electiontable|Hungarian parliamentary election, 2010}}'''Summary of the 11 April 2010 first round [[National Assembly of Hungary|National Assembly]] (''Országgyűlés'') [[Hungarian parliamentary election, 2006|elections]]
{{electiontable|Hungarian election }}'''Summary of the 2010 Hungary
|-
|-
|style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left valign=top|'''Parties'''
|style="-:# align =|'''Parties'''
!style="background:#e9e9e9; text-align:center;"|Number of regional lists
!style="background:#e9e9e9; text-align:center;"
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Individual votes
!style="background:# align=|
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Regional votes
!style="background:# align=|
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Total votes
!style="background:# align=|
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%
!style="background:# align=|%
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Single member seats
!style="background:# align=| seats
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Regional list seats
!style="background:# align=| seats
!style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Total seats

|-
|-
! style="background:#e9e9e9; text-align:center;"|Party
|align=left|[[Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union]] (''Fidesz - Magyar Polgári Szövetség'')<ref>Common list with the [[Christian Democratic People's Party (Hungary)|Christian Democratic People's Party]] (''KDNP'') in the 2010 election</ref>
! style="background:#e9e9e9; text-align:center;"|Number of regional lists
|20
|2 729 327
|2 703 857
|5 433 184
|52.73
|119
|87
|206
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union]] (''FIDESZ'')<ref>Common list with the [[Christian Democratic People's Party (Hungary)|Christian Democratic People's Party]] (''KDNP'') in the 2010 election</ref>
|align=left|[[Hungarian Socialist Party]] (''Magyar Szocialista Párt, MSZP'')
|align=center|20
|20
||2,705,174
|1 087 097
||52,73
|989 609
||'''119
|2 076 706
||'''87
|19.3
||59.59
|
||'''206
|28
||53.37%
|28
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Movement for a Better Hungary]] (''Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom'')
|align=left|[[ ]] ('''')
|align=center|20
|20
||990,095
|835 841
||19.31
|854 745
||'''0
|1 690 586
||'''28
|16.67
||19.18
|
||'''28
|26
||7.25%
|26
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Politics Can Be Different]] (LMP)
|align=left|[[ ]] ()
|align=center|20
|20
||855,109
|258 078
||16.67
|382 991
||'''0
|641 069
||'''26
|7.47
||17.81
|0
||'''26
|5
||6.74%
|5
|
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Hungarian Democratic Forum]] (''Magyar Demokrata Fórum, MDF'')
|align=left|[[ ]] ('''')
|align=center|20
|17
||383,443
|72 695
||7.44
|136 695
||'''0
|209 390
||'''5
|2.67
||3.42
|0
||'''5
|0
||1.3%
|0
|-
|-
|align=left|Civil Movement
|align=left|
|align=center|17
|9
||136,829
|34 938
||2.66
|45 863
||'''0
|80 801
|0.89
|0
|0
|
|0
|
|0
|
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Workers' Party (Hungary)|Hungarian Communist Workers' Party]] (''Magyar Munkáspárt'')
|align=left|[[ ]] ('''')
|align=center|9
|4
||45,863
|5 668
||0.9
|5 606
||'''0
|11 274
|0.11
|0
|0
|
|0
|
|0
|
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Workers' Party (Hungary)|Hungarian Communist Workers' Party]] (''Munkáspárt'')
|align=left|[[MSZDP]]
|align=center|4
|4
||5,606
|3 156
||0.11
|4 117
||'''0
|7 273
||'''0
|2.67
|0
|
|0
|
|0
|
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Independents]]
|align=left|[[]]
|align=center|4
|
||4,117
|33 702
||0.08
|33 702
|0.16
|0
|0
|0
|0
|
|0
|
||-
|-
|-
|align=left|Összefogás Párt
|align=left|Összefogás Párt
|align=center|1
|1
|align=right|2,732
|3 422
||0.05
|2 732
||'''0
|6 154
||'''0
|
|0
|
|0
|
|0
|
|-
|-
|align=left|[[Hungarian Justice and Life Party]] (''Magyar Igazság és Élet Pártja'') (''MIÉP'')
|align=left|[[Hungarian Justice and Life Party]] (''MIÉP'')
|align=center|2
|2
|align=right|1,286
|2 345
|0.03
|1 286
|'''0
|3 631
|'''0
|
|valign=top|-
|0
|valign=top|-
|0
|valign=top|-
|0
|-
|-
<!-- |align=left|[[Social Democratic Party (Hungary)|Social Democratic Party]] (''SZDP'')
|align=left|Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union - Vállalkozók Pártja (''Fidesz - Magyar Polgári Szövetség - Vállalkozók Pártja'')
|align=left|''none''
|
|align=left|-
|10 661
|12,196
|
|0.40
|10 661
|
|0
|0
|0
|0
|valign=top|-
|valign=top|-
|valign=top|-
|- -->
| style="text-align:left; background:#e9e9e9;"|'''Total''' (turnout 64,37%)<ref>In the previous election in 2004 turnout was 38.5%</ref>
| style="text-align:right; width:75px; background:#e9e9e9;"|20 max
| style="text-align:right; width:75px; background:#e9e9e9;"|5,169,836
| style="text-align:right; width:30px; background:#e9e9e9;"|100
| style="text-align:right; width:30px; background:#e9e9e9;"|119<ref>Out of 176 total 119 were decided in the first round</ref>
| style="text-align:right; width:75px; background:#e9e9e9;"|146
| style="text-align:right; width:30px; background:#e9e9e9;"|100
| style="text-align:right; width:30px; background:#e9e9e9;"|265
| style="text-align:right; width:30px; background:#e9e9e9;"|68.65%<ref>265 out of 386 seats were decided in the first round</ref>
|-
|-
| style="text-align:left;" colspan="8"|Source: [http://www.valasztas.hu Valasztas.hu]
|align=left|Independent Smallholders Party
|
|381
|
|381
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|MDF- Összefogás Megyénkért
|
|4 052
|
|4 052
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|MDF-AFD
|
|12 616
|
|12 616
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|MESZ
|
|1 027
|
|1 027
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|[[Association for Somogy]] (''Somogyért'')
|
|7 470
|
|7 470
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|TorgÁn-Kisgazda-KoalÍciÓ
|
|3 079
|
|3 079
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left|Green Left
|
|1 425
|
|1 425
|
|0
|0
|0
|-
|align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|'''Total'''(turnout 64,37%)<ref>In the previous election in 2004 turnout was 38.5%</ref>
|
|width="75" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|10,234,972
|width="30" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,107,471
|width="75" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,127,501
|width="30" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.0
|width="75" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|119
|width="30" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|146
|width="30" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|'''265'''
|-
|align=left colspan=8|Source: [http://www.valasztas.hu/dyn/pv10/outroot/vdin1/en/l50.htm] [http://www.valasztas.hu/dyn/pv10/outroot/vdin1/en/l22x.htm]
|}<noinclude>
|}<noinclude>
</noinclude>


====Election analysis (after the first round)====
====Election analysis (after the first round)====
{{Original research|date=April 2010}}
{{ research}}
The governing MSZP was blamed for Hungary's current [[Hungary#2008–2009 Financial Crisis|critical economic and financial situation]] and for the scandal around a [[Ferenc Gyurcsány's speech in Balatonőszöd in May 2006|2006 speech]] of the unpopular former Prime Minster [[Ferenc Gyurcsány]] in which he admitted lying to the public about the country's economic state in the run-up to the [[Hungarian parliamentary election, 2006|last election in 2006]]. Therefore, the Socialist party suffered its worst result since the [[Hungarian parliamentary election, 1990]].
The governing MSZP was blamed for Hungary's current [[Hungary#2008–2009 Financial Crisis|critical economic and financial situation]] and for the scandal around a [[Ferenc Gyurcsány's speech in Balatonőszöd in May 2006|2006 speech]] of the unpopular former Prime Minster [[Ferenc Gyurcsány]] in which he admitted lying to the public about the country's economic state in the run-up to the [[Hungarian parliamentary election, 2006|last election in 2006]]. Therefore, the Socialist party suffered its worst result since the [[Hungarian parliamentary election, 1990]].


Line 574: Line 497:
Two parties who were formed prior to and had played a major role in the [[Revolutions of 1989|Revolution of 1989]] and in the transition process after the [[End of Communism in Hungary (1989)|End of Communism in Hungary]], the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and the [[Alliance of Free Democrats]] (SZDSZ), have continued their downward trend and failed to make it into parliament, as has the Social Democrat MSZDP.
Two parties who were formed prior to and had played a major role in the [[Revolutions of 1989|Revolution of 1989]] and in the transition process after the [[End of Communism in Hungary (1989)|End of Communism in Hungary]], the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and the [[Alliance of Free Democrats]] (SZDSZ), have continued their downward trend and failed to make it into parliament, as has the Social Democrat MSZDP.


[[Right-wing]] [[populism|populist]] newcomer party Jobbik has jumped into third place from basically nowhere in 2006 (less than 1%), profiting from disappointment with the ruling and established parties as well as from anti-[[Romani people|Roma]] and [[antisemitism|antisemitic]] sentiments.{{Citation needed|date=April 2010}} Despite having gained over 16%, the result was below what some polls had suggested would be over 20%.
[[Right-wing]] [[populism|populist]] newcomer party Jobbik has jumped into third place from basically nowhere in 2006 (less than 1%), profiting from disappointment with the ruling and established parties as well as from anti-[[Romani people|Roma]] and [[antisemitism|antisemitic]] sentiments.{{}} Despite having gained over 16%, the result was below what some polls had suggested would be over 20%.


Even more recent newcomers LMP ("Politics can be different"), a [[green politics|Green]] party just in existence since 2009, has also made it into parliament (over 7%), gaining more votes than predicted (polls gave them around 5%).
Even more recent newcomers LMP ("Politics can be different"), a [[green politics|Green]] party just in existence since 2009, has also made it into parliament (over 7%), gaining more votes than predicted (polls gave them around 5%).
Line 634: Line 557:


== References ==
== References ==
{{Reflist|colwidth=30em}}
{{|colwidth=30em}}





Revision as of 06:53, 13 April 2010

Hungarian parliamentary election, 2010

← 2006 11 and 25 April 2010 2014 →

All 386 seats to the Országgyűlés
  First party Second party Third party
  File:Orban viktor00.jpg File:Mesterhazy.jpg
Leader Viktor Orbán Attila Mesterházy[1] Gábor Vona
Party Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Union MSZP Movement for a Better Hungary
Last election 164 190 0
Seats won 206 28 26
Seat change +42 −162 +26
Popular vote 5,433,184 2,076,706 1,690,586
Percentage 53.37% 19.3% 16.67%

Map showing winning/leading parties (deep orange: seats won by Fidesz)

Prime Minister before election

Gordon Bajnai
MSZP

Subsequent Prime Minister

presumably Viktor Orbán
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union

The parliamentary elections in Hungary 2010 were held on 11 April and 25 April 2010.[2] They are the sixth free elections after the end of communism. The 386 members of parliament are to be elected in a combined system of party lists and electoral constituencies.[3] In the first round of the elections, the conservative party Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union won the absolute majority of seats, enough to form a government on its own.

Polls

As polls showed both MDF and SZDSZ would be unlikely to make it into parliament on their own, they have agreed to a limited electoral cooperation.[4] In March 2010, polls also showed that the Hungarian parliament after the election was likely to be completely dominated by Fidesz polling at 53–67% that month, followed by either the ruling Hungarian Socialist Party at 12–22% or newcomer Jobbik at 11–18%.[5][6]

The election

Election Party preferences in percentage
(What percentage of eligible voters would have voted for the party)
Agency Date Fidesz MSZP Jobbik MDF LMP SZDSZ KDNP Other
Medián[7] 25 November 2009 66 19 10 2 1 1 n/a 1
Tárki[8] 25 November 2009 68 17 11 1 1 1 2 n/a
Századvég-Forsense[9] 26 November 2009 59 20 12 3 3 1 n/a 3
Tárki[10] 16 December 2009 63 19 12 1 3 1 n/a n/a
Századvég-Forsense[11] 21 December 2009 64 17 9 3 2 0 n/a 4
Medián[12] 25 December 2009 61 23 9 2 1 1 n/a 3
Szonda Ipsos[13] 17 January 2010 63 21 12 2 n/a 1 0 1
Forsense[14] 21 January 2010 59 17 15 5 3 n/a n/a n/a
Medián[15] 21 January 2010 65 19 10 3 1 0 n/a 2
Századvég-Kód[16] 26 January 2010 59 23 10 4 2 1 1 n/a
Tárki[17] 27 January 2010 62 22 11 3 1 1 n/a n/a
Szonda Ipsos[18] 12 February 2010 58 22 14 2 1 1 0 3
Századvég-Kód[19] 18 February 2010 58 23 10 5 3 1 - -
Forsense[20] 22 February 2010 59 18 14 2 5 0 n/a 1
Medián[21] 24 February 2010 63 18 15 2 1 n/a n/a 1
Tárki[22] 3 March 2010 61 22 11 2 3 n/a n/a 1
Szonda Ipsos[23] 11 March 2010 57 20 17 1 3 1 0 1
Nézőpont Intézet[24] 14 March 2010 53 12 12 2 2 n/a n/a 0
Medián[25] 17 March 2010 57 21 18 1 2 n/a n/a 1
Szonda Ipsos[26] 18 March 2010 64 12 13 3 5 n/a n/a 3
Gallup[27] 25 March 2010 67 15 14 1 4 n/a n/a 0
Századvég-Kód[28] 29 March 2010 59 16 17 3 3 n/a n/a n/a


First round

Statistical data

Turnout[29]
7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:30 Overall
1.61% 10.23% 24.78% 35.88% 46.78% 59.28% 64.36%

Miscellaneous data:[30]

Total polling stations: 10 926

Number of voters in the register at closing: 7 972 568

Number of voters included in the register using election certificate on the day of voting: 44 367

Number of voters in the register at the end of voting: 8 016 935

Number of voters in the foreign representations: 8 663

Total number of voters in the register: 8 025 598

Number of those turned out to vote in the domestic polling stations: 5 158 350

Number of statements about voting: 6 656

Total number of those turned out to vote: 5 165 006

Proportion of those turned out to vote: 64.36%

Results

e • d Summary of the 2010 Parliamentary elections in Hungary, first round
Parties List Votes List % Individual seats Regional seats Regional seats % Total seats Total seats %
Party Number of regional lists
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union (FIDESZ)[31] 20 2,705,174 52,73 119 87 59.59 206 53.37%
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 20 990,095 19.31 0 28 19.18 28 7.25%
Movement for a Better Hungary (JOBBIK) 20 855,109 16.67 0 26 17.81 26 6.74%
Politics Can Be Different (LMP) 20 383,443 7.44 0 5 3.42 5 1.3%
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) 17 136,829 2.66 0 0 - - -
Civil Movement (CM) 9 45,863 0.9 0 0 - - -
Hungarian Communist Workers' Party (Munkáspárt) 4 5,606 0.11 0 0 - - -
MSZDP (MSZDP) 4 4,117 0.08 0 0 - - -
Összefogás Párt (ÖP) 1 2,732 0.05 0 0 - - -
Hungarian Justice and Life Party (MIÉP) 2 1,286 0.03 0 0 - - -
Total (turnout 64,37%)[32] 20 max 5,169,836 100 119[33] 146 100 265 68.65%[34]
Source: Valasztas.hu

Election analysis (after the first round)

The governing MSZP was blamed for Hungary's current critical economic and financial situation and for the scandal around a 2006 speech of the unpopular former Prime Minster Ferenc Gyurcsány in which he admitted lying to the public about the country's economic state in the run-up to the last election in 2006. Therefore, the Socialist party suffered its worst result since the Hungarian parliamentary election, 1990.

The main opposition party, Fidesz, made a strong comeback to power after eight years in opposition. They profited from the unpopularity of the governments of Gyurcsány and his caretaker successor, Gordon Bajnai, and the harsh measures taken by the latter to bring Hungary out of the crisis. Viktor Orbán will enter a second stint as Prime Minister after governing from 1998 to 2002.

Two parties who were formed prior to and had played a major role in the Revolution of 1989 and in the transition process after the End of Communism in Hungary, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), have continued their downward trend and failed to make it into parliament, as has the Social Democrat MSZDP.

Right-wing populist newcomer party Jobbik has jumped into third place from basically nowhere in 2006 (less than 1%), profiting from disappointment with the ruling and established parties as well as from anti-Roma and antisemitic sentiments.[citation needed] Despite having gained over 16%, the result was below what some polls had suggested would be over 20%.

Even more recent newcomers LMP ("Politics can be different"), a Green party just in existence since 2009, has also made it into parliament (over 7%), gaining more votes than predicted (polls gave them around 5%).

Second round

Results

e • d Summary of the 25 April 2010 National Assembly (Országgyűlés) elections
Parties Individual votes Regional votes Total votes % Single member seats National list seats Total seats
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Szövetség)
Hungarian Socialist Party (Magyar Szocialista Párt, MSZP)
Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom)
Total 100.0 57 64 121
Source: [35][36]


References

  1. ^ The nominee for the post of Prime Minister, not the party leader
  2. ^ Hungary to hold general election on April 11
  3. ^ valsztas.hu
  4. ^ By MTI. "MDF, SZDSZ plan election cooperation in Budapest". Politics.Hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.
  5. ^ By MTI (2010-02-25). "Fidesz still forecast to win two-thirds majority at elections". Politics.Hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.
  6. ^ By MTI (2010-02-25). "New poll reveals Fidesz leading firmly, voter activity rising". Politics.Hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.
  7. ^ Medián
  8. ^ Tárki
  9. ^ Századvég-Forsense
  10. ^ Tárki
  11. ^ Századvég-Forsense
  12. ^ Medián
  13. ^ Szonda Ipsos
  14. ^ Forsense
  15. ^ Medián
  16. ^ Századvég-Kód
  17. ^ Tárki
  18. ^ Szonda Ipsos
  19. ^ Századvég-Kód
  20. ^ Forsense
  21. ^ Medián
  22. ^ Tárki
  23. ^ Szonda Ipsos
  24. ^ Nézőpont Intézet
  25. ^ Medián
  26. ^ Szonda Ipsos
  27. ^ Gallup
  28. ^ Századvég-Kód
  29. ^ Informative Data on the Number and Proportion of Those Turning out at the Parliamentary Elections
  30. ^ "Aggregated Data of Election" (in Template:Hu icon). Valasztas.hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  31. ^ Common list with the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) in the 2010 election
  32. ^ In the previous election in 2004 turnout was 38.5%
  33. ^ Out of 176 total 119 were decided in the first round
  34. ^ 265 out of 386 seats were decided in the first round
  35. ^ "View of Parliament" (in Template:Hu icon). Valasztas.hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
  36. ^ " TOPLIST" (in Template:Hu icon). Valasztas.hu. Retrieved 2010-04-12.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)