June 2024 Diffusion approximations for self-excited systems with applications to general branching processes
Wei Xu
Author Affiliations +
Ann. Appl. Probab. 34(3): 2650-2713 (June 2024). DOI: 10.1214/23-AAP2005

Abstract

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled density process behaves asymptotically like a multi-type continuous-state branching process with immigration, which is the unique solution to a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation with dynamical mechanism similar to that of multivariate Hawkes processes. To illustrate the strength of these limit results, we further establish diffusion approximations for multi-type Crump–Mode–Jagers branching processes counted with various characteristics by linking them to marked Hawkes shot noise processes. In particular, an interesting phenomenon in queueing theory, well known as state space collapse, is observed in the behavior of the population structure at a large time scale. This phenomenon reveals that the rescaled complex biological system can be recovered from its population process by a lifting map.

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank the two professional referees and Yuchen Sun for their careful and insightful reading of the paper, and for comments, which led to many improvements.

Citation

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Wei Xu. "Diffusion approximations for self-excited systems with applications to general branching processes." Ann. Appl. Probab. 34 (3) 2650 - 2713, June 2024. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AAP2005

Information

Received: 1 July 2022; Revised: 1 January 2023; Published: June 2024
First available in Project Euclid: 11 June 2024

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/23-AAP2005

Subjects:
Primary: 60F17 , 60G55
Secondary: 60J80 , 62P10

Keywords: Crump–Mode–Jagers branching process , marked Hawkes point measure , multi-type continuous-sate branching process , population structure , Scaling limit , shot noise process , state space collapse

Rights: Copyright © 2024 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.34 • No. 3 • June 2024
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